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NY Crude Oil Futures - High Outside Reversal to Downside »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 5, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 3977 is immediately trading down about 34% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. At the moment, this market has been rising for 4 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 3935 yet it is trading below last month's close of 4261.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we still have underlying support remaining on the monthly and weekly levels.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 4124 and support forming below at 3958. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 4378, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 4223. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 4 months. Meanwhile, the past four months has witnessed a rally of 555% percent. A month-end closing below 3958 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 4378 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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