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NY Crude Oil Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 29, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4297 is immediately trading down about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Immediately, this market has been rising for 3 months going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 4251.

Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during April. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has bounced making a new high on the monthly level during July and on the weekly level the market has also continued to rally exceeding the previous week's high.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 4290 and overhead resistance forming above at 4298. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 4378, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4378 to 4223. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 24th reaching 4378 failed to exceed the previous high of 5466 made back during the week of February 17th. That rally amounted to only eighteen weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3958. Additional support is to be found at 3907. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 29 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 3 months. Meanwhile, the past three months has witnessed a rally of 519% percent. A month-end closing below 3854 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 4251 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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