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09/12/20 9:59 AM
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 3733 is immediately trading down about 38% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 3613 while it even trading beneath last month's low of 3958.
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we still have underlying support remaining on the monthly and weekly levels.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 3959 and support forming below at 3613. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 4378, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market decline further this week dropping to 0 and we are back above resistance which is beginnjing to now form initial support at 3613. The market has bounced from the low this week to close stronger at the immediate close of this session.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 4 months. However, we are trading below last month's low of 3958, warning that a month-end closing beneath this level will signal a reversal of trend to the downside is starting to unfold. Meanwhile, the past four months has witnessed a rally of 555% percent. A month-end closing below 3958 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 4378 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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