Interesting analysis from "Tim" on the yahoo board:"Time for a prediction of phase three vaccine results, based on what we know.
Standard of care five year survival in glioblastoma is well established at 5%. This was recently reinforced by James the Cat, who posted 5 year survival comparison of Novocure at 13% vs SOC at 5%. Yup... that came from James Gang. 95% of SOC are dead after 5 years.
We also know the top 100 responding patients in the vaccine trial are cancer free at 5 years or greater. We don’t know who was on what.
Let’s assume 5% of those are SOC. That means the other 95 are vaccine patients. and 95 of 331 total enrolled patients is 29% of all patients earned 5 year survival.
Let’s give SOC some buffer grace. and quadruple the number of 5 year survival on SOC in the top 100 patients from 5% to 20%.
That still leaves 80 patients just in the top 100 reaching 5 years on the vaccine, which would still be 24% of all 331 patients qualifying for a cure of glioblastoma.
IMO, if the vaccine only matched SOC In the 231 patients outside the top 100, both PFS and OS would still be impacted enough from the top 100 to separate from SOC.
To anybody who wants to diss this analysis, please include your own statistical analysis on how far the vaccine would have to fall on its face in the other 231 patients to prevent separation in PFS and OS.
A two month added improvement in survival with the vaccine will match improved survival when chemo was added to SOC 15 years ago.
A three month improvement would ensure FDA approval.
A six month improvement would ensure a new standard of care.
A nine month improvement would shake the oncology medical world.
29% 5 year cancer free survival has never been seen before in any glio trial. Not even close. 29% is more than double what Novocure did.
IMO, the vaccine has to be the reason.
I predict the vaccine does not fall on its face in the other 231 patients. I also predict at least a 6 month extended survival for the vaccine, and a nine month or more extended survival is likely.
Gonna diss me? Bring it. You can’t explain away the longer life of this trial.
Good luck to all longs."
