Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 22, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 193830 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. Up to now, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 196280.


DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, focusing in now on timing factors, there is a rational potential of a decline moving into Mon. 24th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 25th. However, a break of this current day's trading range of 195480 - 190960 would warn of a possible cycle inversion given we have a target this day. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Fri. 21st to Wed. 2nd warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Days. We also see a convergence in the Array with both the Directional Change and Panic Cycle lining up for the same target of Tue. 1st. This points out the importance of this target as an event on the horizon. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction. Currently, the market is trading below both the previous weekly and monthly highs which were 201660 and 199240 respectfully but it is trading beneath both implying this has encountered initial resistance.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 194526, 195383, and 196223 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
194526
195383
196223

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 192466. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 194110, 194950, and 196986. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The NY Gold Nearest Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low

At present, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is bullish.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 183080 settling at 193830. The current crash mode support for this session was 187560 which we still closed above implying the market is holding for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 187394. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 177708 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 187560
Previous... 183080
Tomorrow... 187394

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 190960. These hypothetical Tentative Bullish Reversals would stand at 181400, 199300, 200800, and 205760, whereas a close above the previous high 195480 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 190960. These hypothetical Tentative Bullish Reversals would stand at-182990,-177590,-165220, and 198120, whereas a close above the previous high 201660 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 124700, 138480, 145100, and 167700, whereas a close below the previous low 176630 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Making use of our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 196650 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 192990. This provides a very near-term 9.60% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 198120 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 179100. This provides a 9.60% trading range.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

207810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
205760 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
202510 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
201670 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
196650 | 1 | 198120 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
192990 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
191480 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
190310 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
188040 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
184200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
180650 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
180200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
179100 | 1 | 179100 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
176780 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
176620 | 2 | 176620 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
175820 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
175390 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172820 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172710 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172240 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171720 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169880 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168290 | 1 | 168290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
168060 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167640 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167590 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167190 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
166610 | 2 | 166610 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
165790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163810 | 1 | 163810 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
161090 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
159510 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
158810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157620 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157590 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -194113
Weekly ....... 190917
Monthly ...... 164123
Quarterly .... 142727
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 167500 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Factually, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 14540 and an end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. Up to now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 3810 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 180050 after making a new low down two months from the high established back in April during 2020 at 178880. So far, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from that high. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 208726. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. .

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Gold Nearest Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2020. Noticeably, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Monthly to Yearly indicating models while the Weekly is still positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 196650 | 1.454% | 192990 | 0.433% |
WEEKLY........ 198120 | 2.213% | 179100 | 7.599% |
MONTHLY....... 0 | 0.428% | 157590 | 10.9% |
QUARTERLY..... 0 | 2.676% | 138460 | 29.39% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | -7.22% | 113030 | 41.68% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2020, a major low was created on 08/12/2020 at 186500 which was 7 days from that major high. Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2020 to the subsequent reaction high of 201660 formed 7 days thereafter resides at 198152. This is providing the visual technical resistance which we have remained below at this moment in time.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 207800 to the subsequent reaction high of 201660 stands at 198152 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 178091. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.

Now incorporating our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in a bullish position on our broader long-term models reflecting that bull market remains in play. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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