Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Moving Higher »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 15, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 194230 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 196280.


DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, our Forecast Array suggests that there was a practical likelihood of a decline moving into today was Fri. 14th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 18th. We have a Daily Directional Change target due the day of Mon. 17th. Our volatility models also target this date as well. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction. Currently, the market is trading below both the previous weekly and monthly highs which were 205090 and 199240 respectfully but it is trading beneath both implying this has encountered initial resistance.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 196500, 197120, and 198093 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
196500
197120
198093

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 194183. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 194636, 195856, and 197133. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

At the moment, we have seen an inside trading day which closed lower finishing weak at the end of the day. A lower opening will signal weakness but a pentration of 191490 intraday may signal a decline is unfolding. Bear in mind that we have made a new low this week changing the Weekly Bullish Reversals once this week is concluded.

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator on Thu. 13th which was 195088 settling previous at 196190. Our projected breakout resistance is well above the market by 1.92% standing at 198050. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 196610, which is still above the current closing. While an open back above this pivot number or closing back above it signals the rally may resume, and open below this number will warn that a mere penetration of 193200 and a closing beneath this pivot point will imply the market will head lower to retest support.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 198050
Previous... 195088
Tomorrow... 196610

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 186500. These hypothetical Tentative Bullish Reversals would stand at 165220, 177590, 181960, and 198120, whereas a close above the previous high 205090 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 124700, 138480, 145100, and 167700, whereas a close below the previous low 176630 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.


REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

207810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
205760 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
192990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
188040 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
184200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
180650 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
179100 | 1 | 179100 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
176780 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
176620 | 2 | 176620 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
175820 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
175390 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172820 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172710 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172240 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171720 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169880 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168290 | 1 | 168290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
168060 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167640 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167590 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167190 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
166610 | 2 | 166610 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
165790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163810 | 1 | 163810 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
161090 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
159510 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
158810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157620 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157590 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 189437
Weekly ....... 188970
Monthly ...... 164123
Quarterly .... 142727
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Factually, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 167500 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2715 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 180050 after making a new low down two months from the high established back in April during 2020 at 178880. So far, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from that high. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 208726. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. .

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Gold Nearest Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2020. Prominently, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Weekly to Yearly indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 205760 | 5.936% | 192990 | 0.638% |
WEEKLY........ 0 | 2.063% | 179100 | 9.268% |
MONTHLY....... 0 | 1.909% | 157590 | 9.08% |
QUARTERLY..... 0 | 0.265% | 138460 | 27.94% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | -7.41% | 113030 | 41.8% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high that took place was established on 08/07/2020 at 207800. Following the major high, this market has made a new reaction low at 186500 which did penetrate the previous reaction low of 193000 made back on 07/30/2020. However, the market bounced back up closing above that previous low suggesting that we may have a . Since the low made 07/30/2020, the market has bounced for the past 2 sessions. We have elected two daily Bullish Reversals to date suggesting that this low should hold at least temporarily.

Nonetheless, this new reaction low has also penetrated the Uptrend Line connecting the two previous lows made before the high at 179110 and 193000 which rested at 206890 and it also closed under that technical support. This is warning from a broader perspective, the market is beginning to weaken. Keep this in mind going forward despite the fact that we have made a new historical high on this recent rally. Any new high may not be sustainable after breaking this Uptrend Line. Currently, this pre-high Uptrend Line rests at 206890 which we are trading below as of the close today. The market can follow this Uptrend Line back up to retest it. A closing back above it would warn of a possible new high but again it may not be sustainable.

Utilizing our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are flipping from negative to positive. The low on our Energy Models took place 2 days ago. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is obviously in a full-blown bull market on the weekly to yearly levels of our model. Overall, the posture is quite bullish right now on the long-term perspective. Long-Term trend changes only when we elect monthly sell signals.

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