Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Intraday High Crash Mode »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 8, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 201800 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. At the moment, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 198110.


DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a Outside Reversal to the downside Mon. 10th with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 12th. decline moving into Mon. 10th with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 12th. We have a Daily Directional Change target due the day of Tue. 11th. Our volatility models also target this date as well. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 201833, 203010, and 211366 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
201833
203010
211366

Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 203370, 203600, 208080, 209900. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 201167. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.03%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. As of now, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bullish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 197383 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 204758
Previous... 202362
Tomorrow... 202072
We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 208060 settling at 205840 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 209098 which we still closed below. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 209681. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 209681 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 209098
Previous... 208060
Tomorrow... 209681

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 207800. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 0, 184220, 196360, and 201560, whereas a close below the previous low 201500 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 207800. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 156450, 169220, 177930, and 180670, whereas a close below the previous low 196350 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 124700, 138480, 145100, and 167700, whereas a close below the previous low 176630 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.


REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

202510 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
196340 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
192990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
188040 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
184200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
180650 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
179100 | 1 | 179100 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
176780 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
176620 | 2 | 176620 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
175820 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
175390 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172820 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172710 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172240 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171720 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169880 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168290 | 1 | 168290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
168060 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167640 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167590 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167190 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
166610 | 2 | 166610 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
165790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 200790
Weekly ....... 183223
Monthly ...... 164123
Quarterly .... 142727
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

At the moment, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 167500 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Presently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2715 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 180050 after making a new low down two months from the high established back in April during 2020 at 178880. So far, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from that high. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 208726. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. .

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Gold Nearest Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2020. Noticeably, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Weekly to Yearly indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 202510 | 0.351% | 196340 | 2.705% |
WEEKLY........ 0 | 4.694% | 179100 | 7.108% |
MONTHLY....... 0 | 4.336% | 157590 | 6.914% |
QUARTERLY..... 0 | 2.653% | 138460 | 26.23% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | -10.8% | 113030 | 43.98% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The market scored a new major high today but this has been a dramatic outside reversal to the downside leaving the last day as the highest close cyclically speaking. The technical Uptrend Line drawn from the key low established back on 07/16/2020 at 179410 and the next reaction low forged on 07/30/2020 at 193000 currently resides at 202513. We are immediately trading below this Uptrend Line as it is providing some technical resistance. Remaining under this technical line is a sign that caution is warranted. However, an opening below this level will warn of a break to the downside. This would become a possibility with a lower opening. It would tend to be a likely potential on a break of this session's low of 201500. The Uptrend Channel range is 208362 to 202513. Currently, the market is trading below this technical channel.

The perspective from our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are rising, this market is holding right now for the past 5 days. As long as our Energy Models hold above the former low made on 07/31/2020.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is obviously in a full-blown bull market on the weekly to yearly levels of our model. Overall, the posture is quite bullish right now on the long-term perspective. Long-Term trend changes only when we elect monthly sell signals.

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