Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Temp High »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 8, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 275400 and is trading up about 53% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Presently, this market has been rising for 4 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. while it is still trading above last month's high of 262750.


The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 275400. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 207775 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, with respect to time, there is a prospect of a rally moving into Mon. 10th with the opposite trend thereafter into Mon. 17th.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 278200, 285566, and 318066 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
278200
285566
318066

Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 280350, 282583, 295200, 307433. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The market opened higher and closed lowerThe immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 299150. Therefore, this closed below the opening print as well as beneath the previous closing yet it was quite weak going into the close.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 241815. Initial support lies at 265875. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below all three of those same points. Our next projected resistance number stands at 278200.

Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 274300 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the shor-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. Presently, the market has breached our projected techical closing support which resided at 276060 warning that it is turning down and a break of today's low will signal a further decline in the days ahead into the next turning point. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 251910 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 270292
Previous... 255342
Tomorrow... 275743

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator on Thu. 6th which was 279175 settling previous at 284000. Our projected breakout resistance is well above the market by 8.57% standing at 301240. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 308041, which is still above the current closing. While an open back above this pivot number or closing back above it signals the rally may resume, and open below this number will warn that a mere penetration of 274300 and a closing beneath this pivot point will imply the market will head lower to retest support.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 301240
Previous... 279175
Tomorrow... 308041

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 299150. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 0, 216900, 241700, and 256500, whereas a close below the previous low 274300 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 299150. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 155200, 174360, 182300, and 196560, whereas a close below the previous low 241600 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 262750. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 116500, 147700, 149160, and 159460, whereas a close below the previous low 179950 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Applying our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 288200 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 241500. This provides a very near-term 32% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 283000 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 190700. This provides a 32% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 283700 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 163000. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 42%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

329400 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
327000 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
324860 | 3 | 324860 | 1 | 324860 | 1 |
321700 | 1 | 324000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
319400 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
315360 | 1 | 315360 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
312260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 313660 | 1 |
311700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
304700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
301600 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
294500 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
294400 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
293260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 293600 | 1 |
292900 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
292700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
291800 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
291200 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
288460 | 1 | 289000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
288200 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
241500 | 1 | 283000 | 1 | 245400 | 1 |
229000 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 256050
Weekly ....... 203983
Monthly ...... 152233
Quarterly .... 143733
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Presently, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 147500 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Presently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2715 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 186370 after making a new high up three months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 176150. Right now, this market has moved up in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges which is an advance over the previous month.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2018 moving into 2020. Prominently, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Silver COMEX Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 288200 | 4.647% | 241500 | 12.3% |
WEEKLY........ 283000 | 2.759% | 190700 | 30.75% |
MONTHLY....... 283700 | 3.013% | 163000 | 40.81% |
QUARTERLY..... 375900 | 36.49% | 141540 | 48.6% |
YEARLY........ 309760 | 12.47% | 141540 | 48.6% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The Downtrend Line from the major high of 2011 to the subsequent reaction high of 299150 formed over the last 2424 days to the high of this session, resides at 299068. This is currently providing daily technical overhead resistance and as long as this market maintains a closing below it, then it remains in a bearish consolidation phase on this level. After the historical high was established during 2011, a major low was created on 03/18/2020 at 116400 which was 102 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 238283 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 197781 which we have exceeded at this point in time.

Focusing on our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are rising, this market is holding right now for the past 5 days. As long as our Energy Models hold above the former low made on 07/31/2020.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's high and low leaving that as an 2 year high and an outside reversal to the upside. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bullish position. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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