Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Turning Back UP »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 1, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 242160 and is trading up about 35% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Up to now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.


The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 242160. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 189575 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, regarding the timing, there was a reasonable potential of a decline moving into today was Fri. 31st, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target given that the previous session also closed strong above the former high with the opposite trend thereafter into Mon. 3rd. We have a Daily Directional Change target due the day of Fri. 31st. This lines up with a turning point so in this case we can see at least an intraday event, or a turning point based on the close. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 242160 and is trading up about 35% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Up to now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. Today was the closing for this month of July. We dis elect 4 Monthly Bullish Reversal on this closing. The market remains above two Pivot Points offering some underling strength in support at close of this month. Energy has been rising for the past 3 months while this market has also been rising in price.

The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 242160. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 189575 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 243650, 243773, and 254066 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
243650
243773
254066

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 238220 and 238300. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 244130 250900. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 246700 and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains positive on our system indicators still with some overhead resistance. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 262750. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.


Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 237325
Previous... 239650
Tomorrow... 241350

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 262750. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 147700, 174660, 179360, and 190900, whereas a close below the previous low 224600 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 262750. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 116500, 147700, 149160, and 159460, whereas a close below the previous low 179950 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Employing our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 247160 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 216700. This provides a very near-term 25% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 245400 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 182100. This provides a 25% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 245400 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 163000. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 33%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

288460 | 1 | 289000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
288200 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
283700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 283700 | 1 |
283000 | 1 | 283000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
277860 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
276500 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
271600 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
247960 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 251300 | 1 |
247160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
216700 | 1 | 245400 | 1 | 245400 | 1 |
196540 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 229650
Weekly ....... 189850
Monthly ...... 152233
Quarterly .... 143733
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Factually, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 252 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.

END OF MONTH

Today is the last trading day of the month.

We have reached the closing for July 2020.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2018 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Silver COMEX Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 247160 | 2.064% | 216700 | 10.51% |
WEEKLY........ 245400 | 1.337% | 182100 | 24.8% |
MONTHLY....... 245400 | 1.337% | 163000 | 32.68% |
QUARTERLY..... 251300 | 3.774% | 141540 | 41.55% |
YEARLY........ 309760 | 27.91% | 141540 | 41.55% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The Downtrend Line from the major high of 2011 to the subsequent reaction high of 262750 formed 2416 days thereafter resides at 262361. This is currently providing daily technical overhead resistance and as long as this market maintains a closing below it, then it remains in a bearish consolidation phase on this level. After the historical high was established during 2011, a major low was created on 03/18/2020 at 116400 which was 97 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 229204 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 267354 which provides the general overall trading channel and only exceeding that on a closing basis will signal a real breakout to the upside while a break of the bottom defined by the Uptrend Line will signal a move to the downside thereafter.

The perspective from our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are flipping from negative to positive. The low on our Energy Models took place 2 days ago. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's high and low leaving that as an 2 year high and an outside reversal to the upside. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bullish position. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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