Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 1, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 196280 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.


DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, looking at our cyclical timing models, there is a reasonable potential of a decline moving into Mon. 3rd, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 5th. There are 2 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 3rd to Tue. 4th warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Days. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 196280 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. Today was the closing for this month of July. We dis elect 1 Monthly Bullish Reversal on this closing. The market remains above two Pivot Points offering some underling strength in support at close of this month. Energy has been rising for the past 4 months while this market has also been rising in price.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 195690 and resistance at 197136 and 200806 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
197136
200806
195690

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 195333 and 195903. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 196753 199213. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 198110 and closed higher after the previous low made on Thu. 30th but it finished still weak on the close. Nonetheless, the market remains positive on our system indicators still with some overhead resistance.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 198943 settling at 194230 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 197760 which we exceeded intraday; however, the market was unable to sustain that move and it closed back under this indicator. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 199387. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 199387 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 197760
Previous... 198943
Tomorrow... 199387

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 175500, 180500, 193530, and 199000, whereas a close below the previous low 194800 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 155120, 168400, 176640, and 179120, whereas a close below the previous low 189900 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 198110. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 124700, 138480, 145100, and 167700, whereas a close below the previous low 176630 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.


REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

----------------------------------------
190010 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
188040 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
179100 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
176780 | 1 | 177910 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
176620 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
176400 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
175820 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
175390 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172820 | 1 | 175340 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
172790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172710 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172260 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172240 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171720 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169990 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
169880 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168290 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168060 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167640 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167590 | 1 | 167590 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
167190 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
166610 | 2 | 166610 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
165790 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163810 | 1 | 163810 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
161090 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
159510 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
158810 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157620 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157590 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 192180
Weekly ....... 179230
Monthly ...... 164123
Quarterly .... 142727
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Factually, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 252 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.

END OF MONTH

Today is the last trading day of the month. So far the market has been trading down since April. Within this trading month, we have made a new high once again. Our projected resistance stands at 208726 followed by 225116. We have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals so far. The Monthly Bearish Reversal to watch lies at 151960.

We have reached the closing for July 2020.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Gold Nearest Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2020. Prominently, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. .

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Weekly to Yearly indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 0 | 3.382% | 190010 | 0.055% |
WEEKLY........ 0 | 1.743% | 177910 | 2.182% |
MONTHLY....... 0 | 1.589% | 157590 | 9.365% |
QUARTERLY..... 0 | 4.449% | 138460 | 28.17% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | -8.38% | 113030 | 42.41% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The market scored a new major high on 07/31/2020 which is up 13 days from the last cyclical low. The projected resistance target was 188990 which we did exceed intraday stopping at 198110. Nevertheless, this projected resistance will stand at 189750 during the next trading session which we are trading above at this moment converting this into technical support. The projected support target was 182600 which is below the market and this will move to 182760 for the next trading session. We are trading above the Uptrend Channel which resides at 190494 which will move to 190936 for the next session. The new extended Uptrend Channel resistance stands at 198552 and exceeding this level will signal a strong breakout to the upside is possible.

Turning to our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are declining, this warns of a divergence, which has been going on for the past day. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be unsustainable when such a divergence appears.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is obviously in a full-blown bull market on the weekly to yearly levels of our model. Overall, the posture is quite bullish right now on the long-term perspective. Long-Term trend changes only when we elect monthly sell signals.

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