Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Turning BACK DOWN »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 25, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 228500 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. This market has elected Bullish Reversals on all five time levels suggesting it is still in a bullish posture.


The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 228500. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 176550 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 228650, 236866, and 241416 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 227816 and 228400. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 228550 233866. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

Factually, we have seen an inside trading day which closed not only lower, but exceptionally weak warning that the previous high may now stand and a pentration of 224750 intraday may signal a decline is unfolding. We do remain bullish overall on our indicating ranges suggesting the rally is at least in a pause position at this moment since it has closed above our internal momentum despite the lower closing. The settlement was also positive at the end of trading and a higher open may signal a resumption of the uptrend. Nevertheless, our moving average indicators are still all bullish at this point in time. We do have projected overhead resistance standing at 250983. Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded. However, we have also made a new monthly high exceeding the previous month's high reaching 236700 which also means the immediate Monthly Bearish Reversals will change once this month is concluded.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 246300 settling at 229880 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 246400 which we still closed below. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 238640. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 238640 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 246400
Previous... 246300
Tomorrow... 238640

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 214900
Weekly ....... 184117
Monthly ...... 134317
Quarterly .... 143733
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Presently, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 138940 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Up to now, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 3889 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Up to now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2803 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 24th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We are nearing the closing of this month with just 7 days to go. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340. Immediately, the market is somewhat bullish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level is also neutral for now and the weekly level is in a very bullish posture. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is a bit further from the market right now. This resides at 138540 and therefore, a month-end closing below this Reversal will signal a sharp decline to retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 176140

Since the last trading day of this month and quarter happens to also be the end of a week, then we additionally have Weekly Reversals coming into play as well. The next Weekly Minor Bullish Reversal is standing at 0while the Major Weekly Bullish stands at 0. However, the next Weekly Minor Bearish Reversal is to be found at 165740 while the next Major Weekly Bearish Reversal is located at 179340.

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 194740, 179340, and 138540

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high that took place was established on 07/23/2020 at 236700. Following the major high, this market has been consolidating.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's high and low leaving that as an 2 year high and an outside reversal to the upside. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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