Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Whalatane]

Postes ...try arguing it from Hikma's side. Hikma is the only generic with an approved ANDA ? ...ie could do an "at risk " launch if they wanted to.
Is Dr R's ANDA approved yet ?

So assume you are Hikma with a FDA ok to launch......but you wait for the appeal decision in Jan.

Right now AMRN is committed to marketing Vascepa . Apparently DTC will start to run and 800 sales reps are on the payroll .
If Hikma wins the appeal they can simply wait to see what AMRN does re marketing.
AMRN may decide to keep marketing UNTIL Hikma actually launches .
So Hikma can launch at a time of their choosing.....which I would guess will be sometime in 2022.....assuming AMRN keeps its current marketing spend thru 2021.

So if Hikma thinks they have a 50% chance of prevailing in the appeal .....would you give up a 50% chance of the scenario above ......simply to be able to launch 6 mths earlier than Apotex / Teva in 2028 ?

Rose. Apotex and Teva can not launch until the 6 mth exclusivity is up for Hikma ...which I believe starts when Hikma launches ...my recollection. ....if they win the appeal.

Kiwi