Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Whalatane]

Rose. look at the deal Apotex made with Pronova re Lovaza

UBS analysts are sceptical that Apotex has the manufacturing capability to produce a generic Lovaza, suggesting the deal will see Pronova manufacturing Apotex’s generic product, with some royalties on Apotex sales payable to Pronova’s US partner, GlaxoSmithKline.

Substitute that with " Apotex does not have the manufacturing / API supply chain so a deal may see AMRN manufacturing Apotex's generic Vascepa ...with some royalties payable to AMRN. "

AMRN will ramp up sales activity , Dr Bhatt CME class'e etc ....If generics prevail most analyst don't see much impact on AMRN sales until 2022 ......at which time Apotex GV version manufactured by AMRN could also be on the market assuming they have completed the ANDA requirements ( needs confirmation ) .

Vascepa will launch in some form in the EU in 2021 .....and AMRN will supply the manufactured product to their partner or their owns sales force there .
In 2022 ...if the generics prevail ..I expect a ty up as described above with Apotex re US sales .

Assume both markets ramp fairly quickly ....the API supply agreements ,manufacturing and processing abilities will be key . AMRN has all those .

Scale ( with Amarin's help ) may allow Apotex to become the preferred US generic re Pharmacydudes posts

Note this post from Pdude

With generics size matters. Teva and Apotex probably have 100 different drugs to offer a pharmacy. They get pharmacies to sign “preferred generic provider” contracts which typically say: use our 100 biggest selling drugs as your primary generic and we will give you “x”% cash back each quarter plus perks (I get free iPhones, front row concert and hockey tickets, “educational grants” etc from Apotex).

Amarin can’t offer these perks so it will be hard to compete with the big guys.

I think they would have to sign a royalty agreement with one of these guys to get their product into the pharmacies.

Expect a deal with Apotex to launch GV in 2022 in the US if Hikma / Dr R prevail .
JMO

Kiwi