Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[ihavenoidea]

CDMA's migration cost is far less than WCDMA, and WCDMA is suffering from unstable technology and delays in deployment.

Jim:
As you know, there is a lot of problems with W-CDMA implementation as summed up by the above. China does not have a dog in the GSM hunt. Whereas, GSM has admirably protected their market by delaying the implementation of CDMA, the gig is up. The world is going CDMA and that's "q" any way you spell it. Father Time is q's antagonist, not Nokia, or Seimans,or awe, or docomo, or vodaphone,or any other company. It takes Time, more than you (or me) have time for. (imho).

There are other problems with W-CDMA, e.g royalty splits, politics, technology capabilities,handset production, configuration, competiton, cash flow, infrastructure costs etc., that in my view reflect an inability to reach any substantial numbers of wcdma handsets in the time frame mentioned. This may, or may not, be an opportunity for 1x,ev-do, ev-dx, GSM1X. How q strategically plays it is significant.
This brings in something that Art B. said a long time ago - the importance of the management team. My bet is that he is right - q has among the best. Not just technically, but strategically.

Your point about the '08 Olymipics (sp) is an excellent one. We know China will do what's best for China. And incidently the Q is a benificiary, by being an advocate for what China thinks best for them. 3GSM is not, and MII knows it.
(i)