“I”, Re: “the gig is up” and thanks for your insightful comments.
“... the gig is up. The world is going CDMA and that's "q" any way you spell it. Father Time is q's antagonist, not Nokia, or Seimans,or awe, or docomo, or vodaphone,or any other company. It takes Time, more than you (or me) have time for. (imho)” and,
“This brings in something that Art B. said a long time ago - the importance of the management team. My bet is that he is right - q has among the best. Not just technically, but strategically.”
>>>>>
Qualcomm continues to make the point in their presentations that they are working hard at making WCDMA a success. It appears that the Q and DoCoMo are the only ones as it’s in the GSMA’s interest to prolong GSM/ delay WCDMA as long as possible. Their domination of wireless ends when WCDMA (or CDMA2000) ramps as the playing field levels at that time and the Asian handset vendors should have the technology advantage in CDMA and feature rich phone manufacturing. The GSMA continues to work both sides of the fence with their obfuscation (confuse/ disguise/ complicate/ baffle/ mystify/ bamboozle/ bewilder/ confound), one example being renaming WCDMA as 3GSM.
Several of the “old timers (Engineer and Ben Garrett ?)” on the SI thread over a year ago stated that China is the key and Qualcomm wins in either case, but more so if CDMA2000 is chosen by more than just Unicom for 3G. Continued delays in “stabilizing” WCDMA will only serve to tip the scale in the direction of CDMA2000. As time passes, the GSMA continues to be pushed “between the rock and the hard spot” as you say- “the jig is up”. Yesterday’s article in China Nex reflects “renaming WCDMA to 3GSM” shows that the Chinese aren’t being fooled by the GSMA games.
You stated -“Father Time is q's antagonist”, however, China’s 3G decision cannot be put off much longer. I would imagine that if WCDMA does not prove viable within the next few months, China will have no choice but to go with CDMA2000 for their new 3G networks and perhaps even GSM1x for their legacy GSM networks. Unicom should help to force that decision as one of their honchos recently stated they could upgrade to EV-DO in three months at about 33% the cost of their original CDMA CAPEX.
You say-“. It takes Time, more than you (or me) have time for. (imho).” I hope not, China’s 3G decision should take place within the next few months. Either way, Qualcomm wins, and that should firm the base for the “analysts” to finally recognize that Qualcomm’s long term growth rate is much higher than the current consensus of 15%. A higher long term growth rate in the neighborhood of 25% and a PEG of 1.8 should give QCOM a PE of at least 45 with targets based on 2005 earnings. This should significantly boost QCOM’s share price, if it doesn’t happen before then.
If WCDMA has not proven viable at that time, the “jig is (indeed) up” and CDMA2000 becomes the defacto 3G standard in all places but perhaps Europe.
Hopefully the wait isn’t much longer- jmho- jim
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
