Jimmy, here are my views on several of the issues you raised.
Regarding your question of what if only a subgroup shows improvement, or there is no improvement. If there is enough of an improvement to lead to a product, then that is SUCCESS, end of discussion. If there is no improvement, then consider
1) Maybe the SP drops to $3. Well we were at $2.5 only two months ago!
2) Rett results will be SOON. Hold on.
Remember the Rett trial results that will be finished soon. This is another potential product, no partner needed.
Dr.M has always kept enough money for 18 months on hand. Seems pretty conservative to me, with two trials data by end of year.
Also, the company can continue to raise money through dilution. That is what has been happening all along. It will end as soon as we have a product to sell.
Regarding Dr.M's not partnering, I fully agree with Dr.M's stated partnership philosophy. Only partnerships needed for production and PD/AD distribution. The production 'partnership' could just be working with a company to reliably supply product at a specified price. A very loose partnership. The distribution partnership would be commission based and would require contract signing etc.
I have seen many partnerships end quickly when one side is losing money. So if Anavex cannot stand on its own two feet, don't expect a 'partner' to plug in their profits.
If a large company wants partnership with Anavex...it can have the whole company for the MC of $250M. Peanuts for an Esai or Merck.
Dont expect any details of partnerships, without good PD or AD news. Partnership news is rarely released when there is no product.
I am very happy with Dr.M's performance. My only disappointment was with the 3 trials that were delayed. That is water under the bridge, for the most part (opportunity cost), as we are past that today.
I offer the following caveat for A2-73 trial expectations. A2-73 was never expected to cure anything. It is a CNS homeostasis drug, which is expected to lead to CNS improvements, but not necessarily CURES. For example Rett is a genetic problem, which cannot be cured by A2-73, but it appears to improve the patients lives. AD patients on A2-73, showed cognitive improvements in certain subsets of patients, which has been thoroughly documented. Hopefully similar, or better, results will be seen in the PD patients endpoints.
I calculated (and posted a few weeks ago) an Anavex PD success value as a SP = $50. We must all do our own risk reward calculations.
Hang in there Jimmy. In two months we will have the results.
