Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Possible Low »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 23, 2020

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 176930 is immediately trading down about 1.27% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. We did elect three Daily Bullish Reversals today. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into Mon. 25th, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 26th. There are 2 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 25th to Tue. 26th warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Days. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.


Timing Models are always critical and there was a chance of a rally moving into the next target of the week of May 18th, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target given that the previous session also closed strong above the former high with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of June 1st. There are 3 Weekly Directional Change targets starting from the week of May 18th to the week of June 1st suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Weeks. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

The technical daily support for the next session lies at 169167 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. Looking at the weekly level, technical support lies at 175200 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. On the monthly level, key broader underlying technical support at 122284.

TARGET Technical Support

169167 | 175200 | 122284

When we look at the trading range using the Daily Bearish and Bullish Reversals, we see support at 161540 and resistance at the Bullish Reversal above at 182000. The broader trading range using the Bullish and Bearish Reversals from all five levels taking the nearest in both directions, we see a trading range of 176600 to 161960.

Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bearish showing that the long-term level is negative at this time. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the mid-term level is still positive. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.

Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 174633 and resistance at 178006 and 179133 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 173833 and 175210. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 177790 179633. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and it closed higher. We have not broken below our intraday Crash Point number of 163550 suggesting this is not yet a panic sell-off type of move. The Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 167025 which we are trading above as of this session's closing at 176930. This typically warns that if we hold this level intraday, then the sell-off has not yet breached key technical support. Of course, a closing beneath this number will imply a sharp decline is possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 130800 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

The Superposition Reversal for tomorrow will be 153900 and a closing above that even after the election of Daily Bearish Reversals today, will imply a turn back to test overhead resistance will be possible. Currently, the last rally managed to exceed the previous reaction high reaching 181650 but it did not exceed the previous important high of 189200

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 174517
Weekly ....... 150300
Monthly ...... -151067
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

At the moment, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 163000 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Presently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 281540 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 22nd would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.


This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high created since the low took place was established on 04/21/2020 at 0 which was 23 days from that major Low.

Utilizing our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still making higher highs. This implies that any correction may hold important underlying support rather than a change in the broader trend on this level.

OVERALL TREND

. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the monthly short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish while the broader term is neutral to bullish. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

Aiming on the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2021, 2024, 2026 and 2029. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into 2021 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024.

YEARLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES

The most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2020 and during 2021. This model often picks the high or low but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.

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