Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 16, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 170700 is immediately trading down about 4.74% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. We did elect two Daily Bullish Reversals today. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bearish showing that the long-term level is negative at this time. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the mid-term level is still positive. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.


There is no single algorithm that you can devise or cycle that will predict every turn in a market. The reason for this is because such analysis is attempting to be employed in total isolation. Everything is connected. The wild-card which creates unexpected panics in markets will typically come from an external source inspired even from overseas.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 162466 and resistance at 175266 and 176916 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 164800 and 164866. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 173650 174816. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 8 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 5.20% implying a panic rush to the upside. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 18 days. Currently, the market is trading bullish above all four indicators but percentage wise, it is trading only marginally higher less than 1%. Our oscillators are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

This market has been making higher highs showing there has been near-term strength. Up to now, we see overhead projected resistance forming at 182333.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded. However, we have also made a new monthly high exceeding the previous month's high reaching 171500 which also means the immediate Monthly Bearish Reversals will change once this month is concluded.

Up to now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The short-term oscillators are bullish but nearing a temporary overbought position soon on the horizon. However, an opening BELOW 166525 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator which was 160283 settling at 161560. The current rally resistance for this session was 163714 which we also closed above implying the market is holding for now. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 173937, which is still above the current closing. While we did close above the indicator in the current trading session, it is above the closing warning we either must open above it or close above it to expect this market will continue a sharp rally. However, a lower opening and a failure to even make a new high in the next session would warn of a retest of support.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 163714
Previous... 160283
Tomorrow... 173937

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 155767
Weekly ....... 147133
Monthly ...... -151067
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

As of now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 163000 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Factually, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 281540 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 15th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.


This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high created since the low took place was established on 04/21/2020 at 0 which was 18 days from that major Low.

The perspective from our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are rising, this market is holding for right now and starting prepare for a bounce. As long as our Energy Models hold above the former low made on 05/14/2020.

OVERALL TREND

. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the monthly short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish while the broader term is neutral to bearish. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

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