Gernee:
Thank you.
If we do not meet the endpoints (even if motor function is improved), the initial reaction is likely to be that the stock price moves down considerably. We should not necessarily sell if that happens.
Some large funds employ AI/Algos to trade stocks. In other words, machines trade large volumes of stock. These machines or programs are developed based on the past or what is known from the past - not what may known in the future. For example, these programs did not know that a C-virus pandemic would occur, but they were programmed to sell once the selling commenced. They contribute to big swings in the market. We are now witnessing a big swing up, but they could just as easily facilitate another big move down again. I certainly can envision that their systems may be programmed to automatically sell if endpoints in a clinical trial are not met or for any influence that a failure may have. These funds do not necessarily get hurt because they can, upon reflection, buy back at lower prices. Or, they get out early with smaller losses. Many individual investors though may get crushed. We do not react as quickly.
I have been involved with at least one biotech that missed end points in a trial, but otherwise had encouraging results because of other factors. The stock dropped precipitously. However, if one took the time to examine the results instead of automatically selling they would have realized that a segment of those in the study otherwise benefited and that segment represented a large percentage of patients with the disease in question.
If we get any type of mixed results, we could see a drop in share price because that will not meet with expectations of most investors in this clinical stage biotech. However, mixed results in this one trial (PDD) too does not mean it is all over and done.
Of course, if it is a complete failure, we know what will happen, but, to be clear, that is certainly not my expectation. I have researched this company for a number of years. Based on my research, I believe it is highly likely that AVXL 2-72 and 3-71 show promise to treat multiple CNS diseases. I believe that conclusion is reasonable based on the science and studies thus far. I am willing to wait and see. If I am wrong, there will be no meaningful impact on my life style. If I am right, .... I will just leave it at that.
