Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Moving Higher »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 9, 2020

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 157780 is immediately trading down about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. We did elect two Daily Bullish Reversals today. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bearish showing that the long-term level is negative at this time. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the mid-term level is still positive. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.


Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low. They also do not reflect magnitude of a move. They can be a useful confirming tool, but nothing to actually enter a trade on that is consistent.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 156066 and resistance at 160890 and 163866 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 156633 and 156760. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 158290 161383. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.52%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 13 days. Currently, the market is trading bullish above all four indicators but percentage wise, it is trading only marginally higher less than 1%. Our oscillators are all pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

Interestingly, this market is breaking through the top of the trading envelope suggesting that it is making an attempt to test overhead resistance. We have projected pivot support forming at 156066 while projected resistance stands at 160890 and 167933.

This market has been making only lower highs reflecting a broader declining trend. The last reaction high of 163000 remains the critical point that must be exceeded intraday to raise the potential of a reversal in this downtrend. The Downtrend Line stood at 141575 and the market has broke above this technical indicator implying we may challenge the last reaction high at 163000. Up to this moment in time, we see overhead projected resistance forming at 167933.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded.

Up to this moment in time, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now.

This market still has not yet exceeded the last key high of 163000 established back on 04/14. However, an opening BELOW 157425 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator which was 153709 settling at 155900. The current rally resistance for this session was 160000 which we have now closed below suggesting the rally is losing momentum. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 162750, which is still above the current closing. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the rally may resume. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 160000
Previous... 153709
Tomorrow... 162750

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 148400
Weekly ....... 148583
Monthly ...... -151067
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

As of now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 281540 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 8th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.

This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a negative position with still some underlying system support and system resistance above current levels. The market is also trading between underlying support and overhead resistance on both the monthly and weekly levels as well.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high created since the low took place was established on 04/21/2020 at 0 which was 13 days from that major Low.

Now, turning to our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are rising, this market is holding for right now and starting prepare for a bounce. As long as our Energy Models hold above the former low made on 05/07/2020.

OVERALL TREND

. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the monthly short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

Aiming on the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2021, 2024, 2026 and 2029. There is a likelihood of a decline moving into 2021 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 142650 is penetrated even intraday.

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