Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Retire2019]

LBL, ive thought this through from every angle with the benefit of hindsight. If there was a deal pending Du's ruling or settlement, wouldnt amrn have settled? even an overpriced settlement of $50mil would have only been a 25cent hit to the PPS and pennies compared to what we thought was a fair BO. Amrn would have been stupid not to settle and consummate a deal. THat makes me think no deal was ever in serious late discussions. Now there is a major dilemma. If amrn caves and settles, that is just with Hikma and Reddy, and there is now another generic entering. THe generics have no desire to build a market and even if Amrn settles there will be more challenging the patents so if they overpay to settle now, others will jump right it for the payoff. they put all their faith in a democrat appointed judge in the 9th circuit. I only wish i hedged a little given those factors. a settlement does very little now as it doesnt shut the door to other generics entering. I beleive they are digging in for a fight because that is the only scenario to win anything. the dilemna is, the patent clock (even if upheld) is still ticking and they are losing very valuable time. This would presumably impact the type of deal they may for europe because that deal would potentially have to be made before the appeal ruling, so then there is potentially another delay in Europe.

what i dont know is if an appeal is harder to win because in the initial case you had to just win by a 51/49 reasonable thought process, but now do they need an even stronger case to not only proved their original point but also overwhelmingly prove that Du was incorrect. Seems like an even longer shot.