Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doc328]

OFP, the numbers are educated guesses. I calculated a most likely topline data release during second half July --- Jan 27, 2020 + 16 weeks for LPLV + 8 weeks for data lock, scrubbing and analysis and company response = 7/13/2020 and adding a week or two for the Missling deadline effect. 30% likelihood is just the mental image of 7/15/20 positioning upon a bell curve centered around the last week of July.

I interpreted the 1/27/20 press release to be the last patient successfully completing the screening period and being dosed and hence the LPLV would be 14 weeks (study period) + 2 weeks (last safety visit) = 16 weeks. Interpreting the PR as being last patient entering the screen is possible but less likely. If the PR had said dosed rather than enrolled we could be more certain of 16 weeks.

8 weeks is typical for a study of this size though the range can be 6-12 weeks.

Your option strategy with a 5 or 7.5 strike call July/Oct Calendar spread could work out well on good data and could be breakeven on neutral data.

The Movement Disorder Society meeting is 9/13 and Anavex could present at a late breaking news platform presentation (live or virtual) if they report topline news (esp if positive) before that date.