Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[OFP]

I do a lot of option trades and also think of the calendar in terms of expiration. FWIW, I believe there is a <<5% chance we hear results by June expiration, 30% chance we hear topline results by July expiration and 90% by August exp (Aug 21 not yet trading).

Trading options is difficult with AVXL due to illiquidity, wide spreads and few strike prices but I sold some July covered calls (strike 5) and sold 2.5 puts with the expectation price will still be 2.5-5 at that time. I also sold some Oct 2.5 puts to fund long calls 7.5 at near breakeven in late February in case results are stellar.

I'd be interested in the factors that led to assigning the 30% chance by July OpEx. Do you when the last patient was dosed for PDD? I was going on the time that clinicaltrials.gov switched to not enrolling but obviously that is not precise and the last patient's dosing could have been earlier (and conceivably even a bit later). Using that date the last patient would end their 14 weeks on about June 14. I don't see them getting results out in <5 weeks but the "5 weeks" depends on the clinicaltrials assumption.

My preferred strategy will be selling July options and buying the same ones with October OpEx if I can get decent liquidity which I hope will develop as we get a bit closer. Obviously this completely depends on the July-Oct window for a binary event.