Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Knee Jerk Low »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 2, 2020

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY SILVER COMEX FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May 1, 2020: The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 149380 is immediately trading down about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Focusing in now on timing factors, there was a rational potential of a decline moving into Fri. 1st with the opposite trend thereafter into Wed. 6th. There are 6 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 4th to Mon. 18th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 5 Days. We also see a convergence in the Array with both the Directional Change and Panic Cycle lining up for the same target of Thu. 14th. This points out the importance of this target as an event on the horizon. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction. Currently, the market is trading below both the previous weekly and monthly highs which were 159400 and 163000 respectfully but it is trading beneath both implying this has encountered initial resistance.

Considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into the week of May 4th, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of May 18th. There are 4 Weekly Directional Change targets starting from the week of May 4th to the week of June 1st suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Weeks. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

The technical daily support for the next session lies at 145917 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. Looking at the weekly level, technical support lies at 143967 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. On the monthly level, key broader underlying technical support at 122284.

TARGET Technical Support

145917 | 143967 | 122284

When we look at the trading range using the Daily Bearish and Bullish Reversals, we see support at 145500 and resistance at the Bullish Reversal above at 149900. The broader trading range using the Bullish and Bearish Reversals from all five levels taking the nearest in both directions, we see a trading range of 145500 to 149900.

Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bearish showing that the long-term level is negative at this time. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the mid-term level is still positive. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.

Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low. They also do not reflect magnitude of a move. They can be a useful confirming tool, but nothing to actually enter a trade on that is consistent.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 150483, 151036, and 151716 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 149300. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 149836, 151206, and 152600. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low intraday but we closed back above that low yet still closed lower at the end of the trading session. Notwithstanding, the market has plunged significantly by 7.02%.

As of now, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is neutral. This last rally managed to exceed the previous high intraday. However, it was unable to close above it at the end of the day.

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -150567
Weekly ....... 147033
Monthly ...... -151067
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2459 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Immediately, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 281540 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 1st would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.

This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a negative position with still some underlying system support and system resistance above current levels. The market is also trading between underlying support and overhead resistance on both the monthly and weekly levels as well.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The major high created since the low took place was established on 04/21/2020 at 0 which was 8 days from that major Low.

Looking at our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.

OVERALL TREND

. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the monthly short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in a neutral position on the weekly short-term level of our model while the intermediate trend is neutral, the long-term is bearish. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

Bearing in mind the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2021, 2024, 2026 and 2029. Regarding the various factors, we see a strong potential of a decline moving into 2021 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 142650 is penetrated even intraday.

YEARLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES

The significant timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2020 and during 2021. This model often picks the high or low but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.

YEARLY VOLATILITY

On the subject of the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2023. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only greater price movement.

YEARLY PANIC CYCLES

Respectfully, our Panic Cycle target, for the next period to watch is during 2022. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

YEARLY FORECASTING ARRAY ANALYSIS

Focusing in now on timing factors, there was a rational potential of a temporary low since the market has reached our first Yearly target being 2019. Maintaining a closing above our Momentum Projection standing at 144433 will signal that the market is still with broader trend support right now. However, a lower closing could still leave was 2019 as a temporary high and the next turning point will be 2021. (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).

The strongest target in the Yearly array is 2023 for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 2021 until 2023 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 3-year period.

Keep in mind that given the dramatic decline of 32% from the last high established during 2019, that if we continue to move in the same direction after one target, then the move will not subside until the next target in time is reached. We have NOT elected any Bearish Reversals thus far to date. The first Yearly Bearish Reversal comes into play at 141540. There are 2 Yearly Directional Change targets starting from 2020 to 2021 warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Years. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

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