Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

I'm quite aware that generics will steal all US market share from AMRN because PBM's will force patients onto GV because they don't care why the drug was prescribed, and as I've mentioned multiple times 17 states have laws that say if a generic exists, it MUST be given to the patient. Unfortunately this crime of the century lies within the terms of the H-W Act, and the CAFC cannot undo Congressional legislation just because in this case it's clearly unfair to the brand name company - they can only consider it as a patent case. Whether pro-AMRN amicus briefs allow some bias to creep into their decision, we can only hope.

BTW, I assume someone has posted the Roth Capital report by now, been skipping tons of posts out of necessity - they say BO PT is $31/shr assuming AMRN wins the appeal, but the WAC they use for valuing the US and EU markets is way too high, so the PT is too high as well:

Our $31/share price target is derived from a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis, based on: 1)
$14/share for Vascepa in the U.S. (approved, $3.6B peak revenue); 2) $16/share for Vascepa in the EU (2020
launch, 100% POS, $3.1B peak revenue); and 3) $1 additional cash per share. We take our model out to 2030
and use an 6% discount rate.

We specifically arrived at $3.6B peak sales for Vascepa in the U.S. based on the following assumptions: 1)
There are 7.8M individuals in the U.S. with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled
LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%; 2) We anticipate an initial
market penetration of 2.5%, rising to 12.1% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $3K. We utilize a gross-
to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.

We specifically arrived at $3.1B peak sales for Vascepa in the EU based on the following assumptions: 1)
There are 11.3M individuals in the EU with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled
LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.7%; 2) We anticipate an initial
market penetration of 1.3%, rising to 14.5% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $2.3K. We utilize a gross-
to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.