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Wednesday, May 06, 2020 6:05:38 PM
BTW, I assume someone has posted the Roth Capital report by now, been skipping tons of posts out of necessity - they say BO PT is $31/shr assuming AMRN wins the appeal, but the WAC they use for valuing the US and EU markets is way too high, so the PT is too high as well:
Our $31/share price target is derived from a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis, based on: 1)
$14/share for Vascepa in the U.S. (approved, $3.6B peak revenue); 2) $16/share for Vascepa in the EU (2020
launch, 100% POS, $3.1B peak revenue); and 3) $1 additional cash per share. We take our model out to 2030
and use an 6% discount rate.
We specifically arrived at $3.6B peak sales for Vascepa in the U.S. based on the following assumptions: 1)
There are 7.8M individuals in the U.S. with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled
LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%; 2) We anticipate an initial
market penetration of 2.5%, rising to 12.1% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $3K. We utilize a gross-
to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
We specifically arrived at $3.1B peak sales for Vascepa in the EU based on the following assumptions: 1)
There are 11.3M individuals in the EU with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled
LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.7%; 2) We anticipate an initial
market penetration of 1.3%, rising to 14.5% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $2.3K. We utilize a gross-
to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
The Thought Police: To censor and protect. Craig Bruce
Recent AMRN News
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