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Thursday, April 16, 2020 4:31:21 PM
But the Top 100 median increased very markedly.
JTM was 40.4 months (CI 35.5-46.5)
SNO was 58.4 months (CI 45.9-94.5)
So the projected median went into almost an entirely different CI range. Highly statistically improbable, and can only have been caused by a long tail who just kept surviving, beyond previous expectations and KM projections. I think it is perfectly reasonable to make a supposition that if the projected Top 100 median had been calculated again, a year after SNO, it would be higher again than 58.4%.
On the basis of conditional survival expectations, it's implausible to me that these 50-60 long term survivors who surpassed statistical expectations between JTM and SNO, would then start suddenly falling short of expectations.
FWIW, my blended OS60 still hovers around 20-21%.
Some time back, LG gave a reason why they didn't want to give out a 'subjects still alive' figure. He suggested that they might be accused of cherrypicking, if they did.
That is, of course, debatable, and some would say it's not a valid justification for withholding numbers still alive.
Again, fwiw, my current survivors figure would be just below meirluc's, but quite a bit above Ex's.
Maybe 38-45 range.
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