Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[AVII77]

If you assume a modest shave for the 135 to 150 tranche, and then assume some adds for statin intolerant, for those under 45 who still have two risk factors, but subtracting for those in this group without the necessary risk factors, you're probably around 7 million people.

30 percent penetration is 2.1 million people. 50 percent penetration is 3.5 million people. Vascepa net cost is about $1,600 per person. That range is $3.36bn to $5.6bn. And that is looking only at on-label, as well as US only.

$10bn peak global sales is hardly a stretch.

Tasty, when you have a moment check ICERs math and assumptions.

For icosapent ethyl, to estimate the secondary prevention group, we used the same baseline estimate for CAD of 6.7% of the US population (age≥20). 2 In addition, we accounted for the prevalence of patients with stroke (2.5%).2 To estimate the primary prevention population with diabetes and one additional risk factor, we used an estimate of diabetes mellitus prevalence in the US population of 9.8%2 and assumed 87% of these patients would have an additional risk factor, based on the estimated proportion of diabetes patients with metabolic syndrome.110 We applied these estimated proportions for patients in the secondary prevention group and for patients of age ≥50 years in the primary prevention group to the projected average of the 2019 to 2023 US population to derive the estimated eligible population over the next five years. This resulted in an eligible population size for icosapent ethyl of approximately 33,522,000 patients over five years, or an estimated 6,704,000 patients each year.

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