Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

JL and others, here's an excerpt from a population article AMRN references in its PR:



Probably the most relevant line is the one for statin-treated, over 45, with ASCVD and diabetes (it shows 7.5 million adult Americans in the bucket who have trigs > 135).

If you assume a modest shave for the 135 to 150 tranche, and then assume some adds for statin intolerant, for those under 45 who still have two risk factors, but subtracting for those in this group without the necessary risk factors, you're probably around 7 million people.

30 percent penetration is 2.1 million people. 50 percent penetration is 3.5 million people. Vascepa net cost is about $1,600 per person. That range is $3.36bn to $5.6bn. And that is looking only at on-label, as well as US only.

$10bn peak global sales is hardly a stretch.