Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

Sobering numbers for those who think AMRN BO will be three digits per share - NVS optimistically projected $59B in total sales over 20 yrs and overpaid for MDCO at $9.7B. Look at P/S for peak sales - it's only 1.5, not the 4 or 5 frequently thrown around here when making guesstimates at AMRN BO cost, and they project it will take 16 yrs to get there, but an AMRN buyer will only have 9 yrs until generics come to market. Probably not a great 1:1 comparison given that MDCO's drug won't have CVOT data for years, but still numbers that should tamp down BO expectations - should, but I know they won't - I'm sticking to $50 max, but would love to be wrong.