Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[relocatedmetsfan]

ggwpq - Am I the only person that is shocked by the total revenue projections that Novartis gave?

Total Revenue (in $ millions):

2019 $ 0
2020 $ 495
2021 $ 321
2022 $ 554
2023 $ 875
2024 $ 1,598
2025 $ 1,725
2026 $ 2,321
2027 $ 2,916
2028 $ 3,537
2029 $ 4,135
2030 $ 4,811
2031 $ 5,175
2032 $ 5,590
2033 $ 5,950
2034 $ 6,250
2035 $ 6,491
2036 $ 3,246
2037 $ 1,623
2038 $ 811
2039 $ 406
2040 $ 203

I get that MDCO held a longer runway for control of inclisiran compared to Amarin’s current control of Vascepa, but a few things stand out to me...

- ~$500M projected yearly revs in 2020 (appears high considering they are competing against PCSK9s, fresh out of the gate, and don’t have a completed outcomes study)
- ~$900M projected yearly revs before completion of an outcomes study (again seems lofty against existing competition)
- ~$6.5B peak projected yearly revs In 2035 (seems to be high for such a small current market, unless NVS is forecasting a huge increase in potential patient population by then)
- ~$59B total projected revs
- Only 50% decline in sales each year after patent expiration in 2035 (my assumption would be a much steeper decline)

NVS debatably overpaid for this and bid against themselves to get to the final price. Either every other BP is laughing at them right now regarding their financial evaluation of inclisiran, or this bodes incredibly well for potential buyout offers for Amarin in the near future.