Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

True to a point, I was going off of the last 4 years of 50 million per year in growth. 80% growth rates off 200 million is not as easy as 80% of 400 million. You have to question within the current on label population how much more growth would they get out of the same sales force, the 550 is not counting any sales adds, any expanded labels etc...but point taken, a conservative number but I like conservative numbers.

With expanded label I would bet on 1 billion being possible, I think Amarin will not put higher than 750 million in a projection.


1: 1Q has always been lighter than 4Q, even 2018 to 2019 so 130 in 4Q 2019 is no more than 130 in 1Q 2020. I doubt a December 28 label expansion leads to a big 1Q, it takes time. Then we get tricky, when is the ramp up from expanded label taking hold?
If Q2 is at best 50% jump so 200 revenue max so you are needing 50% Q over Q jumps on a larger base. 50% again is $300 in Q3 and 50% again is $450 in Q4, so almost to 1.1 billion, 50% growth Q over Q is aggressive.

I like being conservative and I also like the fact 1.1 billion is not unreasonable.