Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

in current population with normal growth rates they get to $550 million in 2020

Erm, no....current YoY per quarter growth rates are at least 80%, so if they sell $420M in 2019 that rate would give them $760M in 2020, but with the greatly expanded label, better insurance coverage, and increased sales force if they don't break $1B in 2020 they screwed up royally - don't need Canada revs to get there, and coupons are not going away anytime soon, need to get your hooks into more patients first. IMO they should probably hit $2B in the US alone in 2021 after they flood the airwaves with DTC ads. When they become profitable is the real question - could it happen by H2/2020? I think so. BTW, the old revised V commercial is being shown every night on almost every channel I usually watch - they are spending some big bucks on TV ads right now, and with the increased sales force not making much of an impact yet quarterly losses in Q4 could be up significantly from Q3 - but Q4 results won't be out until Jan 2020, they'll know the label by then, so forward guidance will take on significant importance to prevent the pps from getting hit too hard on expected bigger losses. They would probably show a profit in Q4 if they weren't for paying to hire and train the new reps and managers, because Q4 sales are always the highest of the year.