If you have no idea what the company currently has for annual sales any analysis you do is rather meaningless.
They will be at $500 million run rate with 4Q revenue in the CURRENT population. Which means in current population with normal growth rates they get to $550 million in 2020 and you must assume reaching 20K more doctors and double sales force equates to at least $600 million in current population alone. Now you need to figure the growth from adding what is likely 10 times the current population and increased sales force and advertising.
Yes there is some off label use now, though without insurance coverage for it that's minimal. Insurance coverage is better now than ever and getting better, many update tiers a few times a year and others once a year so timing of late December expanded label not best for 2020 revenue. I would expect whatever sales they do in 2020 will triple in 2021 as they would have great insurance coverage, no coupons to pay, could increase price, full year of advertising, fully trained sales force etc.
So there is something to revenue disappointing in early 2020 that could hold back stock price in GIA scenario.
I guess if they do give sales estimate for 2020 in January it will disappoint as they are going to be conservative. In addition they won't fully release advertising blitz until 2H 2020. My guess is they defer on revenue estimate for 2020 until after Q1, which will get everyone all pissy.
However, there is a path to 1 billion in 2020 revenue. 50% increase in sales force, second half of the year full marketing blitz. Best insurance coverage in history, brand new much larger population, increased royalties from abroad including Canada, less coupons etc...I believe most of that jump comes in 2H 2020. Average analysts estimates are $650 million in 2020, they will beat that, I think $750 is more than reasonable. So fortunately we are looking at quarterly beats and estimated revenue raises by analysts all year long which is always good for stock price.
In GIA scenario getting to be $30 a share will likely take until 2H 2020 or 1H 2021 because it's about proving they can sell the drug at multi-billion dollar levels and they are not fully advertising until 2H 2020 and fully established with insurance until 2021 AND you add EU sales/royalties in 2021. IMO they are on pace for 2.5-3 billion in 2021 which is way, way above any analysts estimates.
Of course I believe they are bought out in 2020, announced in 1H latest but that's just based on a logical analysis, I'd be happy if they bucked the expected path and GIA, I can wait until 2021 or later to really, really cash in if I had to. Covered calls and no margin make waiting a bit easier.
So what I can agree with on the Oppenheimer stupidity is sales growth is going to be watched closely and low revenue estimate and 1H 2020 sales below 1 billion pace could hurt stock. Also agree IF they go past 1H 2020 without BO they are likely GIA long term so the window for BO will be closing, however, it never really opened at all until Adcom and doesn't open all the way until FDA label is finalized (maybe even after generics suit settled).
And I agree $20 billion is about the BO price a BP would pay in late 2019 early 2020.
