Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Anonymous Fish]

The whole Secondary prevention patient pop will be less than 10M and there's no way you're going to get 100% market penetration so i'd go with 5M personally which is around $8 billion / annum peak in the U.S alone - which is exactly what the market cap stands at today 'coincidently'.

So you're looking at a buyout valuation of what, $20B plus? Roughly somewhere around $45+ /share?

If they dont get an offer/accept an offer, and decide to continue to go this alone, mark my words there will come a time when Wall St slashes the $8B market cap and says show me the money. What are annual sales at now? ~$200M? Thats a long long way off $8B. You could very easily argue that a valuation of $2B is far more appropriate which would put the share price around $5.