Thursday, September 19, 2019 12:31:58 PM
So quickly, fork gets shot down.
Sort of thought it could (or would) because yesterday's high traded a little outside, and I thought it would be better if the top of the fork would tag the upper blue resistance line but I couldn't figure out how to justify that at the time I originally drew it and price hadn't gotten there yet. But I think there is a higher likelihood that the upper blue trend line will hold, as that is the trend of the previous major peaks as can be seen if one looks all the way back to January of 2018 -- it held then, then again in Sep-Oct of 2018, and again near the end of last July. That's three major reversals on that upper blue line. Additionally, that coming top (if it happens) along with the top in late July could easily be considered a double top (though not perfect), thus appeasing those who insist there is no such thing as a market triple top.
Having thought about that more, I can see a way to justify a more realistic downward fork: draw its base across the lows of the current inclining trend and assume price will intercept the upper blue tine as in the image below (as I already decided for historical reasons that that line should hold). That means that sometime next week the rise in $SPX could easily stall out just under $3050.
Sort of thought it could (or would) because yesterday's high traded a little outside, and I thought it would be better if the top of the fork would tag the upper blue resistance line but I couldn't figure out how to justify that at the time I originally drew it and price hadn't gotten there yet. But I think there is a higher likelihood that the upper blue trend line will hold, as that is the trend of the previous major peaks as can be seen if one looks all the way back to January of 2018 -- it held then, then again in Sep-Oct of 2018, and again near the end of last July. That's three major reversals on that upper blue line. Additionally, that coming top (if it happens) along with the top in late July could easily be considered a double top (though not perfect), thus appeasing those who insist there is no such thing as a market triple top.
Having thought about that more, I can see a way to justify a more realistic downward fork: draw its base across the lows of the current inclining trend and assume price will intercept the upper blue tine as in the image below (as I already decided for historical reasons that that line should hold). That means that sometime next week the rise in $SPX could easily stall out just under $3050.
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