Wednesday, September 18, 2019 7:41:02 PM
Short-term View vs Long-term View,
I hear that there is a goal of the S&P hitting 3,200. If one looks down 200 points from current trade, it doesn’t seem long ago that the market traded a 200-point range -- the Low was pennies above 2,822 in early August and recently traded just below 3,021. So it doesn’t seem far-fetched that the market could rise to 3,200 before the year’s up.
Another -- long-term -- view:
Same blue lines (and yellow fork) as in above image. Using the long-term blue line, $SPX gets to 3,200 quicker because that line has a steeper slope. But as can be easily seen, the market has been trading above that longer trend line, so shouldn’t $SPX get there quicker? Not according to the short blue trend line, which tracks market peaks -- it actually takes longer because it has a lower slope. Looking at the time scale and extrapolating, $SPX getting to 3,200 could easily be a year or two away … plenty of time for a 20% correction.
Last year, between late September to late December, the market dropped a little over 20%. And here we are, at September again.
Do you remember the 21st night of September?
... Earth, Wind & Fire
I hear that there is a goal of the S&P hitting 3,200. If one looks down 200 points from current trade, it doesn’t seem long ago that the market traded a 200-point range -- the Low was pennies above 2,822 in early August and recently traded just below 3,021. So it doesn’t seem far-fetched that the market could rise to 3,200 before the year’s up.
Another -- long-term -- view:
Same blue lines (and yellow fork) as in above image. Using the long-term blue line, $SPX gets to 3,200 quicker because that line has a steeper slope. But as can be easily seen, the market has been trading above that longer trend line, so shouldn’t $SPX get there quicker? Not according to the short blue trend line, which tracks market peaks -- it actually takes longer because it has a lower slope. Looking at the time scale and extrapolating, $SPX getting to 3,200 could easily be a year or two away … plenty of time for a 20% correction.
Last year, between late September to late December, the market dropped a little over 20%. And here we are, at September again.
Do you remember the 21st night of September?
... Earth, Wind & Fire
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
