Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - In Breakout Mode to UPSIDE »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2019

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 30, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 183420 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Immediately, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 2 months going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 166850.


Up to this moment in time, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 34% which has been a respectable recovery to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 166850. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 166850 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 166850 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 194662 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 145650 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 166850 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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