Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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Update: NY Silver COMEX Futures - Pressing Higher »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2019

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Aug. 22, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 170400 and is trading up about 9.65% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2017 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the closed of 2016.


Presently, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

Factually, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market on the monthly level has been making new highs since the last low established 2 months ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect one Bullish Reversal which implies we do have a pause in trend for now on this level currently. Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 170381 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 153243 which is still holding at this time.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 166850. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 166850 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 166850 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 182675 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 145650 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 166850 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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