S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) - Moving Lower »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 17, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 16, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 789599 and is trading up about 19% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. At present, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 766290 while it even trading beneath last month's low of 805929.


Factually, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come November in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 833964 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 805929 closing yesterday at 789599. We now need to close beneath 805929 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now. Since we are trading below that level, caution is advisable.

Critical support still underlies this market at 777708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 7 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 729222 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 833964 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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