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Replies to post #65137 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
08/31/19 9:44 AM
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 30, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 796288 and is trading up about 20% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. This price action here in September is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
Immediately, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bearish.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come October in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 766290 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Critical support still underlies this market at 777708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 833964 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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