Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - In Breakout Mode »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 19, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 161950 and is trading up about 4.21% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into July reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 155550.


Currently, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 18% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



From a timing perspective, a turning point is due come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be on guard as this unfolds. The last cyclical event was a low established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 155550 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 155550 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 174800 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 162000 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 173600 back during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 143140 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 155760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Exploring the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past Monthly session. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 162000 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 142650 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 142400 on a closing basis.

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