Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Further Decline Likely
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2019

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 12, 2019: The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 152360 is immediately trading down about 1.95% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Presently, this market has been rising for this month going into July reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.


Factually, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 11% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 155550 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 155550 to 145650. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 162000 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 173600 back during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 143140 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 155760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past Monthly session. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 162000 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 142650 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 142400 on a closing basis.

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