NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

Lykin, Since you asked,

My number was an off the cuff estimate of how many I would have expected to be now known to have been alive on 10/31/18.

We both are of the opinion that 91 +/- a tad were most likely known to have lived 36 months. The only question is of those 91 how many dies post 36 months. All those pre-36 month numbers mean nothing.

The 1 major post 36 month point we have is the 50 would be expected to have lived to 58 months {flipper, will back to you later in a reply to your post). That implies 9 expected events in the 100 prior to 36 months, and 41 events post 36 months. That gives us survival percentage of about 55% for those who made it to 36 months to reach 58.

Now, back to your groups.

The initial 44 should have had about 4 legacy patients, and almost certainly all are now dead. Of the remaining 40 were spread out from 55 months to 84 months. Well older than that 58 months on average. So I would go with 50% being alive.

20 : Of first group

For the remaining 46, they were on trial 36 to 55 months. I would expect 20% to have evented in this window. So 37 alive from that group.

37 : pf ypur second group

That gives number now known to be alive as of Oct 31'18 of 20 + 37.

57 : total patients who have had a pulse taken or answered the phone on or after 10/31/18

So thanks for getting me to fix an off the cuff estimate.