Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Turning BACK DOWN
By: Marty Armstrong | February 2, 2019

Analysis for the Week of February 4, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Feb. 1, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 159310 and is trading up about 2.51% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 1965 moving into a major high for 2011, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2015 forming a declining trend of 4 years bottoming at 136200. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from 2011, which tends to warn that the 2011 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2015 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Nonetheless, we have elected one short-term Yearly Bullish Reversal to date from this 2018 reaction low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the closed of 2018. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.


Currently, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 16% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



A possible change in trend appears due come March in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 162000 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 162000 to 151950. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 177050 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during January 2018. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 182900 back during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 138540 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Subsequently, the market made a low in November 2018 at 138600 electing one buy signal from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 173600 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 2 months. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 142800 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during January 2018 on the Monthly level at 177050 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. However, we still remain below key resistance 174950 on a closing basis.

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