Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis »» Moving Higher
By: Marty Armstrong | January 26, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 28, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 25, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 156990 and is trading up about 1.02% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. While the historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 1965 moving into 2011, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2015 forming a declining trend of 4 years bottoming at 136200. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from 2011. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2015 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Distinctly, we have elected one Yearly Bullish Reversal to date from this 2018 reaction low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the closed of 2018. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.


As of now, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come in NY Silver COMEX Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 155750 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 155750 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 177050 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during January 2018. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 182900 back during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 138540 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 155760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 10 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 177050, which was created during January 2018. The previous monthly level low was 138600, which formed during November 2018, and only a break of 138600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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