Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis »» Reaction High Forming
By: Marty Armstrong | January 19, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 21, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 18, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 153990 immediately is trading down about 0.90% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 10 days, while we have made a low at 153500 following the high established Fri. Jan. 4, 2019, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level falling by 1.88%. The market remains negative on our system indicators with still some underlying support at 153800 with the overhead resistance standing at 155740. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelop albeit skewed to the bearish side.

We did break below the intraday Crash Point number warning that this is a panic sell-off type of move. We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 154657 settling at 155360. The current crash mode support for this session was 154273 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 152895. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.

Nonetheless, the market remains particularly weak near-term with initial resistance forming at the 155750 area while broader intermediate underlying system support is still present on our indicators. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of December 31st at 159550 for 2 weeks.

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a Directional Change due in 2021 as well as a Panic Cycle warning this is an important target, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. Up to now, the market has been consolidating trading within last year's range. The next target due 2021. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 185060. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 13% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.

Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 154700 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 145500. This provides a 5.94% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 155760 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 141000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.47%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 153990, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come March in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 155750 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 155750 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 157350. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 31st at 159550, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 155600. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 138600, which formed during the week of November 12th. The last high on the weekly level was 159550, which was created during the week of December 31st.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 155760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 14 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 138600, which formed during November 2018, and only a break of 138600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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