S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Summary Analysis »» STILL WEAK
By: Marty Armstrong | January 19, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 21, 2019

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Tue. Jan. 15, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 702383 and is trading up about 5.85% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. So far, we have been trading up for the past 8 days since the reaction low made on Thu. Jan. 3, 2019, but the key low was made 16 days ago on Mon. Dec. 24, 2018 at 619017. The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 8 days closing above the previous session's high in a very sharp move up posting a gain on a closing basis of 1.70%. The market remains in a mixed position. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. However, an opening BELOW 697698 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temprorarily.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 703822 settling at 690592 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 698422 which we have now closed above suggesting the market is starting to possibly breakout to the upside if it can be maintain in the next trading session. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 707905. Normally, when you open back below this resistance number or closed back below it then the rally is losing momentum. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. This market is currently in a dramatic Phase Transition whereby it has rallied for the past 9 years scoring a 542% gain. To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 813330 to 813330. While we are still trading more toward the upper resistance, a closing below the previous year's low should imply a continued decline into 2020 remains possible whereas a closing above last year's high would signal a resumption of the uptrend is possible. We also need a higher closing at least above 663528 to suggest the market is holding for now and likewise a closing below this level will warn of weakness. We do see the next two targets in time forming in 2020 followed by 2022

This market on the daily level has been making new highs since the last low established 8 trading days ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect one Bullish Reversal which implies we do have a pause in trend for now on this level currently. Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 796599 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 733280 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 631342. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 1046146 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 38%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 702383, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.21% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come March in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 619017 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 748651 to 619017. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 698522. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.1488%. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 17 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 3 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th. The previous weekly level low was 619017, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 674140 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 760424 above the market.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 580514 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-569 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 573 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August 2018. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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