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Replies to post #65040 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
01/26/19 2:39 PM
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 25, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 716486 and is trading up about 7.98% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. While the historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 1974 moving into 2018, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the closed of 2016 which signalled the rally would continue into 2018. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.
This market still remains in a broader bullish posture warranting a classification as a Bull Market. Nonetheless, the Weekly level on the indicating models shows inherent weakness with signs of overhead resistance at this point in time. However, the last reversal to be elected on the Weekly level was a Bearish the week of January 14th. Currently, this market has been rising for 9 years going into 2019 suggesting that this has been a bull market trend which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have so far this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 619017 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 748651 to 619017. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 580514 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Targeting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-569 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 573 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August 2018. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
