Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 5, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 7, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 4, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 157860 and is trading up about 1.58% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the key low made on Wed. Jan. 2, 2019. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed lower and it was weak going into the close. Clearly, this market is still above the critical point support at this time, which lies at 150365. Additionally, our central cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing. Furthermore, the shorterm oscillators have also signalled a possible crash is not likely.

The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session stands at 160925. We are currently trading below this indicator as of the closing in this session. Normally, when you open back above this resistance number or we closed back above it, then the rally is holding. So, pay attention for this is a dynamic number which changes with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of June 24th for the past 7 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of December 31st testing resistance at 159550.

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2021, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 155400 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 744254 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 185060. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.

Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 167000 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 145500. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 173600 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 141000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 18%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 157860, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.47% beneath that level.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come April in NY Silver COMEX Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 155750 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 155750 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 162542 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

The overall tone of this market is extremely bearish on all levels at this time reflecting it is still very much a Bear Market in play

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 31st at 159550, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 159550 to 153850. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 31st reaching 159550 has exceeded the previous high of 149500 made back during the week of October 1st. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.

Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 7 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 138600, which formed during the week of November 12th, and only a break of 147150 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 159550, which was created during the week of December 31st, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 155760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.

Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 14 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 138600, which formed during November 2018, and only a break of 138600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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