NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 29, 2018
Analysis for the Week of December 31, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Dec. 28, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 154360 immediately is trading down about 9.96% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past 10 days since the key low made on Fri. Dec. 14, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of June 24th for the past 6 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of December 24th testing resistance at 154600.
On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is clearly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 171450 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2019 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2020 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2019. Our pivot point for the year is 764561 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.
---------------------------------------------- RARE SUPER POSITION EVENT
We have elected two Short-Term Weekly Bullish Reversals. However, we have also elected a Long-Term Bearish Reversal in a Superposition Event warning that this may prove to be a high. ----------------------------------------------
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 13% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 155260 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 142700. This provides a 8.08% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177760 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 141000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 20%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 154360, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.
A possible change in trend appears due come March 2019 in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 138600 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 149200 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 148750. To date, this rally has been up for ten daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 24th at 154600, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 154600 to 147150. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 24th reaching 154600 has exceeded the previous high of 149500 made back during the week of October 1st. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 6 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 138600, which formed during the week of November 12th, and only a break of 146150 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 154600, which was created during the week of December 24th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-651 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 665 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and has now been broken in the recent decline. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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